Quick and dirty analysis:
Assumptions: 250 in each arm
Lympoedema incidence: 4.0% (10/250) for tape measure, 0.8% (2/250) for BIS
- Difference in lympoedema risk: 3.2% (8/250) - 80% relative reduction in lympoedema
- Number needed to test/treat (to prevent one lymphoedema): 31.3 women (250/8)
Treatment incidence: 27.2% (68/250) for tape measure, 16.4% (41/250) for BIS
- Difference in treatment risk: 10.8% - 40% relative reduction in treatment
- Number needed to test (to prevent one treatment): 9.3 women (250/27)
Given that lymphoema is a lifelong condition requiring physio and other management, and huge personal costs, and treatment is unpleasant, these look like great results.
Cost-effectiveness ultimately depends on: additional cost of BIS vs tape-measure, and frequency of testing; cost of unnecessary treatment in the tape measure group; cost of lymphoedema where not prevented.
In terms of approvals etc, they already have reimbursement organized so no obvious problem. Moreover, breast cancer is one of the rare diseases which is more common in higher socio-economic groups, so looks like a no brainer IF THESE RESULTS PERSIST.
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?
