"...if the Coles spinoff wasn't announced, the SP would be $38 to $39."
Paraphrased:
"The only reason my forecast for the share price to go down was wrong was because the share price went...uh... up. If it wasn't for that, I would have been right."
It's a bit like the weatherman forecasting rain and then, when the sun shines instead, claims that he was right, except for the fact that it ended up being sunny.
"...if the Coles spinoff wasn't announced, the SP would be $38...
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