Agree, but i also see it this way.
Lets assume we want the price to get back to say 14c. Then with 6.8bn shares and net debt 300 (they will draw down eventually) then we get an EV of lets say 1.2bn then a reasonable multiplier that one might hope to get to is 7.5 (ev/ebitdax). Thus ebitdax would need to be around 160m.
Can the company get to ebitdax of 160m - thats the question. Multiplier well of course thats another biggie but 7.5 reasonable if debt ratios OK and oil price maintains around current levels long term (another big unknown, of course)
Current ebitdax on 8boed is around 80-85 (20 in Q3 so use as run rate) . Thus if SEA can get to 20boed as forecast in 2019 and with commodity price up around 1o% more from Q3 ''17) then if one takes all into account - then ebitdax of 160 is not out of the question.
So lets assume i'm 10% out on ebitdax and PE - so using ev/ebitdax of 7 with 144ebitdax (which would be low on 20boepd)and net debt 300 mrkt cap would be around 700 or just over 10c per share.
Thus i put the newco 1 year out price at between 10.5 and 15c per share - with lots of huge assumptions. Thus barring some major oil price collapse (not likely if iran deal scuppered by Trump; maybe if tradewar so lets say compete against each other) then 5.9 c an ok deal and if took up the previous offer a few years back at 13c then may get too there as well.
In other words if take up entitlement and your b/e all up comes out around the 12c mark, then a chance to get money back and then flee within say 18 months. Of course aud may collapse as well -a lot of variables at play.
IMO for sp to go beyond say 15c will need everything to align and some luck - not saying cant happen but 6.8bn shares !!!
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