I am not sure why people are thinking that a vote no would mean a drop in the value of the share back to what we have seen recently. I suspect the reason for the recently low share value has been a concerted effort to bring the value of the share down. This quite obviously has had the effect of convincing people that the current offer is the only viable option. Merck have advertised the buyout as a multiple of current price offer. Viralytics have a pathway to market, money in the bank and a number of potential suitors.
It seems everyone feels Merck is getting the product very cheaply, I would not be surprised if they were willing to pay much more but it needs skeptical shareholders that are completing proper due diligence. I am waiting for the current information assymetry to be resolved, ie us shareholders getting as much information as Merck as to the status of the all trials, only then can I make a fair call.
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