And a few more thoughts to muse over.
BAML Event
I'm aware that Next Decade (amongst others) also presented yesterday and state FERC NTP is due 2H18. At no 5 (source World Gas Intelligence, slide 7), that alone provides a powerful endorsement and differentiated leadership position for MLNG (no 2) something that would not have been lost on instos attending.
So whilst others may be catching up (and other global projects surplus capacity is absorbed - thanks JKerr), don't underestimate for a minute exactly how well placed MLNG is.
And for those concerned about OSMR, all the DD suggests zero concerns with the LSTK contract underwritten by KBR (& SK E&C), the latter being Korean HQ'd (just saying).
Corporate Governance
LNG's Governance & Securities Policies (available from the company's website) makes it crystal clear "everyone who works for and with LNGL - employees, directors, contractors, partners or suppliers" are precluded from buying shares if they are in possession of insider information.
I note there has been no insider buying for some time now (note: NED grants at the AGM are explicitly excluded).
Those frustrated at the 'lack of progress' would do well to read and consider the legal obligations of the Board.
Shorts
Now to the even more interesting bit ...
Some may also have noticed the elevated levels of shorting. In recent weeks, the absolute level has increased from ~3% (Jan) to ~4.8% (this week) of issued share capital. Typically since early Jan (see below), 20-30% of daily shares traded have been shorts. The last 2 days it's been 60%.
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That's got me thinking why such elevated levels given the pointy end of negotiations underpinned by KBR, Stonepeak & FERC's NTP and that any day THE announcement we await could materialise. ASX Trading Halt anyone?!
It may be some instos are reducing their average entry price as US instos combined holdings have fallen to 44% (from 48%).
Others may be driving the price lower ahead of expected BTAs, feasting on weak holders capitulation as losses mount, thereby building their position.
And then there's that other possibility ...
Right now, shorts appear in the ascendancy in the absence of news.
However 'conviction' holders remain, some astutely buying more whilst others simply exhausted are 'holding on'.
Either way, it seems pretty clear it's merely a timing issue now, hence 'playing the man and not the ball' is IMO unwarranted but understandable as frustration builds at a lack of progress.
What the above elevated short position does indicate, is that when news breaks, a short squeeze (amounting to ~2% or 10 million shares to bring back to say 'average' 3% short levels) would compound share price action forcing a 'melt up'.
Share Price Action
That is why the tussle now between 'capitulation' and 'conviction' with the former in the ascendancy is unlikely to last forever (as the clammer across the industry of supply shortages in 2020s becomes louder and louder).
And it may be we are not at absolute 'capitulation' levels yet ... assuming no news by month end save for another Meridian extension we could then be.
(And for those quick to right Meridian off, just read up on the UK's lack of energy security given Brexit (EU policy requires fellow members to buy surpluses from each other, a benefit the UK is unlikely to enjoy post March 2019), the recent 'Beast from the East' cold snap and the overpriced Hinkley Point nuclear development. Even Maurice's GEV has done a deal with Meridian.
No, this has been tough for shareholders, no question about it.
I hope my hypothesis helps, whilst stimulating objective/ rationale thinking/ reasoned speculation.
Long-term contributors holders have remained loyal, but frustrated - deserve better.
Meanwhile, the Board, GV & his team continue to work in the interests of all shareholders and incentivised to achieve success.
And you can bet your bottom dollar they are working their butts off.
Go LNG!!!
