Hi Prime1 I think you completely misunderstood my previous post...

Hi Prime1
I think you completely misunderstood my previous post I was only relaying the "shorts" thesis, not my own thesis.

I already stated my own opinion : both shorts (Syrah will go bankrupt) and longs (Syrah is undervalued) are IMO wrong and extremist/unrealistic views of Syrah.

The shorts are wrong because it is unlikely that Syrah will go bankrupt after the last 100M$ cap raise that provides a nice working capital buffer that could last a reasonable amount of time (at least 1 - 2 years) allowing the company to cope with any short term difficulties regarding technical problems or ramping up production and sales and achieving cash flow positive status.

The longs are wrong because at 1.2 Billion$ market cap Syrah cannot reasonably be considered undervalued. At this valuation success is already factored in the stock price. That doesent mean that the stock price cant go up from here, it may go up, but not because Syrah is undervalued but rather due to hype and pure speculation not based on fundamentals.

Why is that ? at 1.2 Billion$ syrah is valued at 12x annual earnings of 100M$.
If we assume realistic basket price of 700$ per tonne (most of syrahs production is small flakes and the company already stated that prices quoted by analysts (likely they are referring to 800$ per tonne) are simply overinflated) and costs of production of 400$ per tonne, Syrah needs to produce and sell 335.000 tonnes of graphite per year to justify its valuation. Now how many years it would take Syrah to achieve this level of production/sales/profitability ? 3 years ? 5 years? In the meantime what would the market reaction be like when Syrah releases quarter after quarter of disappointing financial metrics (compared to its valuation) starting with this Q1 2018 (results will be released end of april 2018) ? Just think about it....

You may respond that basket average prices of syrah graphite are more like 800$ - 900$ per tonne and costs of production shy of 280$ per tonne....I have no comment on this, suffice to say that we will know soon how realistic (or rather unrealistic) these figures will look like when Q1 and then Q2 financial results are released.

Regarding BSM vs Syrah, it is ridiculous to compare both on production quantity metrics (besides quality metrics where Syrah's specialty is low priced/low margin small flakes and BSM specialty is premium priced/high margin large flakes), this is investment and what matters when investing is how much undervalued and what is the upside potential of the stock price ? is BSM more undervalued or Syrah ? Has BSM more upside potential or Syrah ? these are the questions that should be asked. Good luck to all !