What I am saying is that MQG must be pretty sure that they will...

What I am saying is that MQG must be pretty sure that they will get their money back on their AGO shares and they think there is a chance that they might do better than that. Depending on what other positions MQG have taken in association with the AGO shares that may be equivalent to MQG thinking that $16.00 is good value for MIN.

If MQG paid 2.8 cents for their AGO, then on paper at least, they are already in the Monnet with MIN at $17.00, which equates 2.98 cents for AGO via the MIN offer.

(If MQG shorted MIN at the same time they were buying AGO then they are probably about square at this point and will be hoping that the bid for AGO is increased.)

In the end, MQG will want to take what they can get for their AGO shares and move on. MQG certainly will not want to hold on while the MIN bid lapses in the absence of a better one.

MQG are not invested in your hopes and dreams for AGO, they will want to be off and onto the next opportunity.

In answer to your question, I don’t know why MIN achieves that particular discount on its iron ore sales.

What I do know is that MIN makes money.
Enough money that MIN could buy AGO with what MIN has in its pocket.

I too got down and dirty in the technical minutiae of my lottery stock, which was also a miner. That just distracted me from the simple fact that they were not making any money in the prevailing circumstances.

cheers