MQG bought 4.8% of AGO subsequent to the announcement of the...

MQG bought 4.8% of AGO subsequent to the announcement of the offer from MIN. (MQG’s notice says they now have 5.0%) Before that, MQG was a seller of AGO, so the MQG holding doesn’t conflict with the general notion that "lottery" stocks tend to be held by retail holders rather than institutions. However, once the takeover was announced, AGO and MIN became a takeover arbitrage opportunity.

MQG’s purchase of AGO says to me that MQG are nearly certain that the takeover will proceed so that MQG will at least get their money back, and fairly soon at that, and with what they evidently judge to be little risk. The plus for MQG is that they have gained exposure to possible upside if the offer is increased.
I very much doubt that MQG would be buying into AGO unless they consider it is a near certainty that some sort of takeover will proceed on terms at least as good as in the MIN offer. Without that certainty the MQG trade is in the category of “picking up pennies in front of a steam roller”.

(MQG may well have shorted a corresponding number of MIN as the counterbalancing leg of the arbitrage. If so, that would indicate that MQG are near certain that it is MIN who will end up acquiring AGO at the current equivalent offer price (or higher). I say that because, MQG would likely lose on that leg of the arbitrage if MIN do not succeed in acquiring AGO because the MIN share price will likely rebound if their bid fails. MIN fell 6.9% on the day of the bid announcement and is still down 1.4%, hence the MIN sp will likely rebound if their bid fails.)

I suppose it is possible that MQG might have shorted some other potential acquirer in the expectation that their share price will fall if the put their hand up to take on the AGO burden

Some retail AGO holders have been proclaiming that their AGO stock will only be prized from their cold dead hand. They should realise that the more AGO stock that is owned by institutions, the less say the retail holders will have about what happens ultimately.

cheers