Yes I think that any delay in the start of the QLD Govt guarantee may actually be a bonus.
The actual guaranteed price with the QLD Govt does not seem to be stated anywhere, but a number of $88 is assumed in one of the broker valuations. When the guarantee kicks in, the QLD Govt will also receive the associated LGCs. Currently, the spot price for LGCs is around $85, and has been at this level for a while. Daytime power prices in QLD are been around $60 per MWh at the moment (before rising mid to late afternoon). So yes GNX is making around $150 per MWh (power + LGCs) and should "generate" a lot of cash between now and July when the Govt guarantee kicks in.
( Are GNX are stringing out the commissioning timetable for just this reason ?? )
The announcement shows nearly $1.4 million in revenue for March, and there's still over a week to go. So $2 million per month should be easy, especially when the full 50MW of generation is active. Call it $25 million for a full year, compared to projected value of $16.8 for the 12 months to Feb 2017 in this presentation.
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