The economics of this deal for OZL will get very interesting.
They could well end up with a substantial holding, whatever the percentage, but insufficient initially to enjoy an immediate compulsory acquisition of the remaining holders.
If they have to acquire down the road they will need an independent valuation,they will have to pay cash and I personally will be screaming for publication of an enormous volume of data that currently OZL is privy to but we the long standing share holders of Avanco are not. That valuation will be based on the data available at the time of valuation so Pantera drilling, PB drilling and Centrogold approvals could all be in place. It is realistic to think that valuation will be well north of 16.5c which is the approx value of the current offer IMO.
How the economics of this work for OZL will depend a lot on how high up the registry they get.
If they only get to 70% for example, they have to pay out 30% of share holders, nearly 1 billion shares after director's options, the increased value. If they get to 85% they only have to pay out 15% of holders the increase. As we get closer to the pointy end these numbers will become more apparent.
It could well be the case that if they do not get high enough up the register that it would be in their interests to lift the offer now rather than later.
Interesting times ahead, it's going to be a long six weeks I suspect.
PS We are not the AVB REBELS. We are the long standing private share holders of Avanco Resources. We have the right to hold , buy or sell our shares as we see fit. I personally wish everyone well with their own decision whatever it may be. However, We are entitled to call a value on Avanco if the board will not (well they did last year 22c prior to Pantera and Centro /PB /Antas upgrades.).
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