Good to have all the study and research before putting on a trade but for me it is about taking a chance and a proper risk management and ultimately we can't possibly see the future.
There is 50% chance of being wrong no matter what and we may believe certain things but it is all in our head and market will do opposite what we believe.
I believe there is a quite good probability of making profit on QBE at this price but hey my belief means nothing but I need people to sell it to me otherwise how can we make money if everyone believes the same thing.
I am only a vulture and happy to take risk
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