Battery material war, between economy and efficiency ② Cobalt price rise and NCM alternatives
News | Approval 2018.04.02 14:3
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As the age of electric cars approaches, the demand for LIB and its demand are increasing exponentially. However, the price of major raw materials in LIB is unstable, which is causing instability. Batteries account for about 48% of the cost of EVs. The price of lithium and cobalt, the main materials, has more than tripled in the last two years, and nickel and manganese prices are rising.
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Column 1  Cobalt ore |
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As an alternative to this, NCM811 (nickel: cobalt: manganese = 8: 1: 1) is attracting attention because it can reduce the efficiency and material cost. In addition, the expansion of the battery factory can greatly reduce the cost as the production scale increases. However, despite the cost reduction efforts, the rise in the prices of raw materials for batteries and the shortage of supplies are expected to be a more serious crisis along with the growth of the electric car industry. SNE Research estimates that one-tenth of cars sold in 2020 and one-quarter in 2025 will be electric cars.
Electric vehicle LIB producers are also making efforts to improve their production capacity. Tesla's Giga Factory is aiming to produce 35GWh, the first stage plant is already in production and plans to increase production capacity to 150GWh. China's CATL, BYD, and LG Chem in Korea are also aiming to secure 50GWh of production capacity by 2020, respectively. SNE Research estimates that global electric vehicle LIB production capacity will reach 569 GWh in 2020 and approach 1000 GWh in 2025. Looking at the amount of raw materials entering the electric vehicle, we need 7.7kg of lithium, 53.5kg of nickel, 10kg of cobalt and 26.6kg of copper for the Tesla Model S as a base. In order to produce lithium-ion secondary batteries of this size in 2025, lithium needs to be 21 times higher than in 2017, 15 times higher for cobalt and 41 times higher for nickel.
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 (Source: INI R & C, Asian Metal) |
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 (Source: INI R & C, Asian Metal) |
According to INI R & C's report on "Lithium Secondary Battery Industry and Mineral Resources" (January 31, 2018), the price per tonne of lithium will rise from 52,210 yuan in September 2015 to 175,826 yuan in March 2016, More than three times, it dropped to 118,764 yuan in November 2016, and reached to 175,000 yuan in November 2017.Cobalt rose 3.2 times from 34,421 yuan per ton in 2016 to 109,987 yuan in March 2017, then dropped to 80,841 yuan in June 2017 and reached 115,568 yuan in January 2018.Lithium has risen more than 3.3 times over a period of two years and three months from September 2015 to November 2017, and Cobalt has risen more than 3.3 times in one year and seven months from July 2016 to January 2018.
Nickel and manganese prices rose by 28% for two years and 20% for two and a half years, respectively, showing relatively moderate growth.
The next generation electric car NCM811? Lithium oxide mixed with nickel, cobalt and manganese is mainly used as an anode material of a battery for electric vehicles in recent years. It is said to be an NCM ternary anode material. According to SNE Research, ▲ batteries supplied by Samsung SDI for BMW i3 include NCM 111 with 1: 1: 1 ratio of nickel, cobalt and manganese ▲ batteries supplied by LG Chem with bolts for GM bolts, nickel, cobalt NCM 622 with a manganese ratio of 6: 2: 2 NCA cathode material mixed with nickel, cobalt and aluminum is applied to the cylindrical battery of Giga Factory supplied with Tesla incense.
In 2017, SK Innovation announced that it will mass-apply NCM811, which has an 8: 1: 1 ratio of nickel, cobalt and manganese, to electric vehicle batteries. LG Chem also announced that it will mass-produce NCM811 products first. It is increasingly increasing the proportion of nickel in electric car batteries and reducing the proportion of cobalt. The NCM811 has a nickel specific gravity of 60% to 80% higher than that of conventional ones, and a cobalt content of 20% to 10%. The higher the nickel content, the higher the battery capacity and the lower the cost of cobalt.
Experts predict that most of the NCM811 will be used for the third generation of batteries that can run more than 500 kilometers per charge. SNE Research said, "We can manufacture high-capacity batteries by increasing the ratio of nickel, but the safety is relatively low." "LG Chem and SK Innovation announced that they achieved mass production stability through material development and product development. "He said.
At the Battery Japan 2018 conference held on March 1, Hideki Ogihara, director of BMW Battery Technology Development, said, "The most highly anticipated technology alternative now is the NCM811 pre-solid state battery." The safety of nickel is lowered and the safety of the solid electrolyte is increased, so that a high efficiency and safe battery suitable for an electric vehicle can be produced.
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 BYD Electric Bus (Source: BYD) |
BYD, "An Alternative to the NCM Expensive Cobalt Price Loss"
On the other hand, Tom Zhao of BYD, an electric vehicle and electric car battery maker in China, pointed out that "NCM battery is the limit of market that can not be faced." "The battery market will be divided into two parts, LFP and NCM." He said. NCM will be used in the high-premium market, but lower-cost lithium-ion battery (LFP) will be used for the low-cost battery market. As a basis for this, he cited 'lack of cobalt supply'.LFP is cheaper than cobalt and performance uses iron as an alternative to it. Although it has a stable and long life, it has a disadvantage that the diffusion rate of lithium ions is very low and the electric conductivity is low.
Bloomberg predicts that demand for cobalt will soar to around 80 to 100 times the current level as the EV market grows rapidly. It is pointed out that uncertainty in the supply of raw materials could be the biggest risk for operators because the price of cobalt has already risen about 3 times before."In order to counteract the instability of these cobalt supplies, BYD is looking for two countermeasures," said Tom Zhao. "First, NCM 811 in the process of new battery production, , Thereby reducing the dependency on cobalt.
The second is to recycle waste batteries for electric vehicles, which are expected to increase to about 25GWH by 2025, to secure the cobalt that is insufficient and to use it again in ESS and telecom center. " According to BYD's analysis, about 95% of cobalt batteries are recyclable, and many are attracting interest in the business.
"In spite of these new production and recycling efforts, there is still a gap between battery demand and supply in the market, so it is inevitable that we need to rethink efficiency in LFP-based technology," said Tom Zhao, Will be approached through improved functions of LFP for large buses and ESS devices with low demand for miniaturization. "[/table]
