@ChippyDude Respect. I have a lot of respect for you mate after this post. We don't always get it right and you are man enough to say this one didn't work out. You have earned a lot of respect in my eyes. Sometimes it's hard to separate emotions from analysis. I am sure many Myer holders are in this boat. It's best not to get caught up with those as you have mentioned and move on. I have no doubt you will bounce back. I have had similar trades and losses on other investments which people would be experiencing with Myer right now. I was never here to 'scare' investors. I was honestly trying to protect people of there hard earned dollars. I even provided a decent valuation model which would be closely to what the market would be using and is close to the current price right now.
As a personal take away, my biggest losses have taught me the biggest investment lessons and in my opinion made me into a more attuned investor who can identify risk earlier (whether in an announcement, market, financial etc) and cut losses earlier before I feel too committed and require the old 'doubling down' exit strategy. That is the most stressful situations for myself personally as there is even more risk riding on a 'reversal' which may not come.
I also agree with your 2H 2018 net profit predictions. People don't really understand that Myer makes most of their profit in the first half and either breaks even in the second half or makes losses in the second half which offsets the first half earnings. All you need to is check the previous full year results compared to half yearly results.
All people need to do is check out my previous valuation model to see there isn't actually much upside potential here.
