Short Term Trading Week Starting: 19th Mar, page-183

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Diver Dan

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22/03/18

10:47

Post #: 31942813
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Originally posted by Diver Dan ↑

The discussion on financial networks between Fed and bond market analysts left me thinking they preferred to be as flexible on an exact number as J Powell appeared to be in his overall outlook. One such discussion went something like this: If the 10 year can't close above 2.9% today, then the market views this FOMC directive as dovish. Some wondered out loud if we are even going to get a sustained move over 3% in the near future; and others opined that there is too much concentration on the 10 year and to watch shorter ends of the curve tomorrow. Given that 3% is the number that keeps coming up, we can assume that it is on bond trader's radars. But as you have pointed out before in your posts - I think - that number might be merely a psychological line in the sand; constantly relative to other things. It is the velocity of the moves that bond traders are said to care most about. Some analysts managed to blurt out that the market may have yet to fully consider the paradigm of more hawkish 2019 and 2020 plots while keeping the 2018 plot unchanged and flexible. The idea put fourth by some was that although the bond and equity markets reversed their immediate moves to the Fed release, there remains some consideration to take place in the next few hours and days. The perennial equity bulls argued on air about whether the market has been given the "all clear". So to answer your question, I did not see a firm number given but I may have missed it.

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Here is the FOMC statement as well as the Fed Chair's Q&A session from today

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20180321a.htm

XAO Value at posting: 6,022.5
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Short Term Trading Week Starting: 19th Mar, page-183

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