Part 2:
From Maquarie publications again :
They have forecast cobalt prices in their Jan 2018 "Commodities Comment Bulks’ price deck reboot and outlook" here
The price they cite Something completely different.. Their 2018-2020 forecast
(I have tried to paste an image of the table but HC keeps rejecting it).
Cobalt (projected) price 2016 to 2022
Cobalt (99.8%) $/lb 12 27 26 17 19 24 37
So going forward for 4 years, they see the price reaching US$37 / lb...
So while they may be quite conservative on their long term forecast, they are still very bullish for (at least) the next 5 years...
What does all this tell me with regards to Assumed Cobalt price for any PFS/BFS ?
I suspect if a company uses an assumption of US$20-25 /lb (~ US$50,000 - 60,000 / tonne) in their calculations, they are going to be received with a far warmer reception than if they use US$30-35 ( ~ US$73,000 - US$ 85,000 tonne) ... if they use US$12-15 /lb , (US$29,000 - US$ 36,000/tonne) their project will probably not be shown as viable, and the shareholders would riot.
If they can possibly show a viable project with the US 12-15 /lb... lenders would be falling over themselves to fund it, and I would be part of the herd rushing to buy their shares.
All IMH(non-expert)O.
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