Hi Gumboots, yes rising Cobalt prices is an interesting issue, do you know how much Cobalt is in a standard EV battery?
Interestingly though I don't think Cobalt is a rare earth and one would gather that a lot more Cobalt mines will start coming into play at these current high prices, thus likely to see the price drop as supply increases. Like just on the ASX alone one sees new Cobalt plays popping up, similiar to new battery companies in the States I suppose. Be interesting to see which ones of these startups survive the competition from the battery giants, one would imagine they will just snap up any technology that is worthwhile
Also a lot of copper mines have it as a by product, so as they start to ramp up again there will be further increase in supply. I believe a lot of them are now looking to process their tailings from copper processing to extract the Cobalt, again the high prices for Cobalt being the driver.
And of course as you are no doubt aware Cobalt is just about 100% recyclable and there are a number of companies already looking at establishing battery recycling facilities. So may be a spike in demand from the first generation of mass produced EV batteries, but after that there should start to be a re supply from recycled batteries, so not sure I would be wanting to spend billions of dollars on a technology that is reliant on Cobalt prices continuing to rise or even remaining at current levels.
Anyways, it's looking good for graphite, Lithium and Cobalt if they stay with same technology for next 10 to 15 years as you say. Probably some spikes along the way as supply and demand re-balance.
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