I think the answer is if it goes to $1.30, everybody keeps their wallets closed and the underwriter needs a new pair of underpants.
Share overhang for a while is likely the case.
If no underwriter, cost to do the entire cap raising went down the drain. But hey, its best-practice.
The market doesn't always act rationally and a lot of external factors come into play ... its called equity risk, and it is a real risk especially with a long-tail process such as fully renounceable rights issue. As such the discount is large, to minimise the risk of the share price going below the issue price.
FYI the ASX did a fully renounceable rights issue at a 16% discount.
For a more stable ASX listed company with steady cash flows, there is something to fall back on ... like a DCF calculation.
But for a company like MSB, there would be in my view a very negative reaction in the share price if they did that today.
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