Totally agree with that, just saying timing is the issue, truth is though booms always go well past well thought out reasoning like you are using.
Key words you've used to suggest you have the timing wrong are "compared to cycles past".
It translates to "this time it's different".
Look at history and it's 7-10 years per cycle, after a particularly bad down cycle it's likely the next few down cycles are only moderate.
We also tend to be 2 years behind US markets, look at the last 2 years over there and we have a real possibility of pushing that 10000 mark on the ASX200.
Booms don't finish when the market is lower than it was 11 years earlier
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