Why am I invested in Nd-based magnets?
Magnetism comes from unpaired electrons. There's more to it, but that'll work for starters.
Nd has four unpaired electrons and is more abundant than all the other elements with four and five unpaired electrons except Cr, Mn, Fe and W.
Tc does not even exist (all its isotopes are radioactive and all have decayed); the rest are extremely rare or radioactive.
So unless you wanted to make MUCH more expensive magnets, you've pretty-much whittled it down to those four or five and Neodymium.
Now you have to make something from the atoms, like a lump of iron.
Turns out that is another MAJOR problem. Really only the lump of iron retains is magnetic properties. You can't use pure neo, unless you keep it near absolute zero, i.e. Curie temp. Have to find a compound to make a lump of. It is only the lump of NdFeB which creates maximum PMs at room temp (up to ~80C). Now we have an acceptable alternative compound with the La:Ce replacement (not stronger, not better), but the grains and the boundaries are an essential part of any lump of the stuff. In the long run, we might end up going back and forth with the recipe with the supply and demand of certain lump materials, like Dy even, but Nd is here to stay.
Folks have tried to make magnets from all of the elements with multiple unpaired electrons and pretty-much failed to find any compounds which lock the unpaired spins into useful strong magnets - there are a couple we know of, but they aren't NdFeB. Believe me, the efforts have been going for decades (more) and have been incredibly intense. Millions of compounds have been investigated, including compounds using elements that are much rarer than Nd and compounds that are more exotic.
Lately we've seen Mn-based magnets mentioned, but that's a work in progress which is highly unlikely to come to fruition in our lifetime.
So we have NdFeB (the B is essential for the locking and spacing) and we know it's the strongest effing magnet ever likely to be found.
Magnetism is valuable almost beyond measure. It's a rare power that can make electrons move, but with magnetism you can make them dance. You don't even need heat; the power is just sitting there. Other than gravity (which used to power the world - still does with hydro), magnetism is the most useful and manageable force of nature. Eventually the world will be powered by wind and sun. Some nuclear energy is likely; I think Thorium more likely than Uranium, but I'm only keeping a toe or two in such investments.
What's happening right now is NdFeB is being evaluated by the world. What can it do? What is it worth? How can we get the most of what we have now? Bit of a bumpy ride with supply and demand issues, but it has inherent value and will not go to waste. The lesson of the early oil glut should not be forgotten: buy and hold. We are in at the beginning, growing demand is assured in the long run as the electromagnetization of the world continues. Fossil fuels are a goner, heat and steam have had their day.
Lots of folks here are traders; I'm a long term investor. Big trends interest me. I have not made nearly as much money trading as I have investing.
I want more NdFeB in the market to support electrification. I want NdFeB everywhere it can do the job.
I don't want to stunt the growth of the new paradigm, so I don't want a glut or a price spike.
I think research aimed at eliminating NdFeB is short-sighted and I want enough NdFeB to prevent the need for that approach. I want Nd reduction research because that helps the ramp stay smooth and informs smart and effective use - again, lessons from fossil fuels.
I have a lot riding on this trend. Much more than half my net worth if I count the copper and lithium co-investments, but Lynas is my biggest investment of all.
GLTA.
p.s. A certain amount of poetic license is claimed.
p.p.s Magnetocaloric refrigeration will be effing huge and almost certainly use rare earths.
