I am going to suggest the SP is going higher from now on. Why?
1. The market depth ratio has improved and I have just noticed today that it's almost 1:1 for the first time since the recent lithium route began. I'm talking late Feb/early March, soon after the cap raise was announced.
2. The cap raising is now out of the way and we have a $7.50 interim target for the Toyota Tsusho valuation of ORE.
3. Shortman shows that historically the worst two months for ORE are February and March (in fact the only two down months throughout the year) and that the SP, on average, rises from April through to January, with only one flat spot, in October.
4. The market will like the news about Seville, as in his remaining on the board and the company will be spending 12 months to find a replacement, giving a nice orderly transition.
5. There is great AAL drilling news coming out from Cauchari with the resource estimate expected in mid-May.
6. The oil price seems to be trending higher. High oil prices mean EVs are more attractive.
7. The pond rebalancing and unseasonal rain issues will be behind us.
8. Olaroz Phase 2 and LiOH Plant to be approved by mid-2018.
9. Lithium carbonate prices are still trending up.
Have I missed anything?
If I'm right (although I've been wrong plenty of times before), look out for some daily upward jumps of around the 5% level, with some down days here and there. This is what we have seen in the past.
Caveat: Things can change very rapidly, e.g. a poor quarterly report, war escalation, sovereign risk, shorters, so my comments above are based on business as usual. And as always, I need to trot out the old HC cliche... DYOR.
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