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crazypunter

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13/04/18

20:03

Post #: 32447683
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Originally posted by StormBringer ↑

Been watching this with hungry eyes for some time - wondering where the falling knife will settle.

Trying to understand the dynamics:

Against:

Loss of monopoly
Customer churn when people realize that they don't have to stay with Telstra
Possible dividend cut with margin squeeze
Exit of investors who no longer benefit from imputation credit if/when Labor get in

For:

Utility like dividend stream with good yield regardless of imputation credit
Share price floor with yield of 7% even with 18c reduced dividend at share price of $2.50 - be a while before banks can match that.
Yield means even with loss of imputation credit - pretty good.
Best mobile network - have bought the pick of the litter in frequency blocks

Looks as though major fund(s) is dumping and people are following the trend. When reverses - probably pop fast as no doubt people hedging will have to cover their 'puts' when it goes.

I'm looking sub $3 though won't wait till it hits bottom as too many people will be waiting for that. Happy to get close enough - around $2.70 to $2.80.

Anyway - just my 2c worth

Expand

just to add to the list-the FED has just announced that rates are on track to rise a lot faster than first anticipated.
30% of the ASX is from o/seas funds, so TLS is no longer an attractive yield player unless it gets down to at least the magical $2.60.
forget about 5G being the mythical gamechanger!

cheers crazypunter

Last edited by crazypunter: 13/04/18

TLS Price at posting: $3.10 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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