Ann: Business Update, page-43

Hey all,

Going to throw a hat into the ring for a couple of consideration points. Unlike majority of HC members, I'm not a red hot trader - I work in media & marketing, so please be gentle. That said, after sitting on the forum sideline for a fair while, I'm hoping I can add a different perspective that contributes the community.

-- Catering To Gen Y Investors --
There's been a lot of talk about how APT serves a millennial/gen Z's appetite for immediate gratification. Frankly, they have absolutely nailed a behavioural trait of impatient, younger generations who have become accustomed to the immediate response of the digital age.
This extends to investing. Young people are one of the least certain when it comes to managing their finances (95% don't feel comfortable with how they are managing their finances, and 1 in three say they know nothing about managing their money [2016]).
Usher in the Bitcoin story. The potential of getting rich quick was evidently popular with young people, even without widespread, in-depth understanding of what the product is. There's an innate understanding that investing is a smart idea. They want to see immediate returns. Understanding many businesses financials is hard.
Now, wrapping back around to Afterpay. APT is a business that makes *so much sense* to its target market, so much so that they understand how this business could be extremely successful. Without hard research I think its safe to say that APT can be a popular consideration for the casual young investor who doesn't know much. Asking around my own internal office and friends groups, everyone who's <35 with any clue of investing is in on APT, or at least watching it.
Remember that need for immediate gratification? That's going to come into effect with their casual stocktrading. Patience may be a virtue but for an audience that sees 10% in the red, who don't read anything beyond the news and the numbers in their CommSec app and are innately jittery about their finances, the odds of hanging in there are low. I think it's safe to bear in mind that, like the company itself, the investor base is going to skew young and green on this one, which adds to the volatility and also paints a target for shorters.
TL;DR: Young people are investing in APT making it more volatile in the short run, they act on impulse, don't understand investing, expect an always-up trend for something they believe in and panic when it faulters.

-- Pay Attention To The Fashion Calendar --
With an 80% female customer base and a heavy kew towards fashion retail, remember the calendar for season drops. These are just as important as the generic, busy retail booms and often way bigger than Christmas (ref: VFNO, Click Frenzy, Black Friday, etc.). Mar/Apr are massive for winter and probably attribute to that big month which should continue into Q3. In fact, from here to September is great as we step into Holiday/Cruise and spring collection launches.
While it may be a minor influence, it's also worth noting that when the AU dollar drops, small Australian designer sales - particularly those that do not wholesale - can rocket for their desire in OS markets. I guess this is only of value to APT when those customers have an AU account, but with huge amount of 18-34 AU's overseas this is still a consideration.
TL;DR: Consider key dates in the fashion calendar for retail booms.

GLTA, looking forward to coming off the bench more and contributing where I can.