Effect of Tesla’s possible collapse on Lynas?, page-76

I agree with what you say. What I am going to say is "I think something is a 6" and you a five on a 1 to 10 scale. nothing is absolute. On batteries I think there will be tremendous improvements in the next few years both in weight and charging and discharging efficiencies. Even if they improve the fast charge from about 50% to 85% and the high discharge from 50 % to 85 % the cost and pollution numbers will not compete against hybrids. also note that for fast charge they usually have to cool the batteries and this power is not included in the KWH /Mi or battery efficiency number . I think the real problem is the utilities. in US they have fought solar every inch of the way. They supported Trump with his back to coal goal. I will admit utilities are abandoning coal for NG as fast as they can. All existing plants in US are on 40 year depreciation schedules the utilities cannot abandon them easily.

I do not like plug in hybrids it is back to big batteries and utility power. Mild hybrids I understand because cost and weight to implement is low. The biggest mild hybrid I have seen is 20 KW, let me know if you have seen bigger, not saying there are not some bigger just I have not seen them. 20 KW converts to 26 HP This is not much of a power boost and is unable to covert and store much of the energy from braking. especially here in US where people tailgate and do not slow down till last minute then brake hard.

I am worried that if too many people start thinking that EVs are key to REE demand growth and the whole EV thing starts coming apart the stock will take a hit. Not that profits will be impacted at all just emotion and stock. I believe that in a few years almost all the cars sold will be hybrid. the smaller E motor size makes it much more likely that they will be entirely NdFeB design and not something else.

There are many large power solutions that could lower cost and pollution. We need a cultural change before this will be change and even after this it will take a long time to implement. I think the biggest change is for people to realize that Depleted Uranium or Thorium metal cooled non pressurized reactors are not the same as enriched uranium pressurized water reactors. I do not see EVs as a complete solution until we reduce fossil fuels to less than 50% of commercial power generation.