predictions?, page-43

This guy's analysis is garbage. First, the average dropout rate across all clinical trials is 30%. This means, based on the law of averages, 40 people would have dropped out of the Immuron NASH trial. But only 21 people dropped out (one died in car accident). So the dropout rate was only only one-half of the average dropout rate across all clinical trials, which is very low. Second, he likes to point out that the most favorable and statistically significant results of the trial were achieved in only a sub-part of all patients taking IMM-124E, namely, the patients taking the higher dose arm, 1200mg three times daily (or 3,600mg/day). Great! Nothing wrong with that. IMM-124E has proven extremely safe so dosage levels can be increased in designing a pivotal trial without fear of adverse events. In fact, in the ASH trial (patients with severe alcoholic steatohepatitis), which has results due in early 2019, there is a 4,800 mg/day arm. Finally, in the pediatric NAFLD trial with results due late this year and in the aforementioned ASH trial with results due in early 2019, the primary endpoints are percent change in ALT level and greater decrease in mean circulating endotoxin levels in those receiving steroids + IMM-124E compared to steroids + placebo, respectively. Based on the NASH trial results, it is very likely Immuron's IMM-124E will show statistically significant benefits for each primary endpoint in the pediatric NAFLD and ASH trial.