predictions?, page-11

Hi Marko2

When I read the document links that Orioles posted there was one which specifically dealt with the reduction on the basis of average times and it stated that the normal 3 years would be reduced to 18 months. The 62 months is on the basis of 3 years as I then read the table so it would come back to 44 months if 18 is right.

On the question of Breakthrough Therapy status as Orioles said this was the first time I had seen this term used in the context of Immuron.

Don't ask me where but in one of the many documents I read relating to Immuron I believe I read that 124 had been given 'orphan' status and as such if it progressed through Phase II successfully then the FDA could accelerate Phase III reducing the time in Phase III to about 18 months and then assuming it maintained the same safety profile it could be allowed to progress to Phase IV which would allow it to come to market with strict monitoring and reporting of its useage. In other words it would be being trialled effectively in the real world.

The time in Phase IV was referred to but I can not be sure now except that the total time if it was allowed this pathway by the FDA was still going to be 5 years to full unrestricted market access. The advantage of this being that Immuron earns revenue and the problems relating to recruitment I would suspect be diminished if not eradicated.

I also believe that having the 'orphan' status also importantly extended the period that Immuron could enforce its IP entitlements.

I have said this once before on here but possibly does not hurt to repeat. The valuation of Immuron is probably impossible at this stage and certainly I do not have the credentials to make even an informed guess.

So what I have mused upon is the valuation placed on Viralytics (VLA ASX) by Merck for the purpose of its takeover offer being half a billion dollars. If you look to the value of the addressable market just for 124 leaving aside all of the other things that Immuron has going for it 124 (fatty liver disease) and Cavatak (Cancer treatment & VLA's only drug) have very similar potential addressable market values.

What this means is that the present market value as calculated by Orioles of $80,000,000 AUS is 6.25 times less than the value placed on Viralytics by Merck.

6.25 x .38c is $2.375 to which you should add something for all of the other irons that Immuron has in the fire. This method of valuing Immuron could well be complete rubbish but I am happy with it for now (as I am with my present profit) and will keep holding until the true potential is realised.

It is obvious that I have the view that as has been said on here that the current market cap of Immuron seems ridiculously low.