Short Term Trading Week Starting: 19th Mar, page-228

US Market Update

The conventionally accepted rational for today's declines involve angst over trade wars and to an extent interest rates. Imo this is not as much about potential trade war as much as it is the overall turmoil in Washington.

Asian trade overnight was aberrant. European markets continued to look rather dubious in the technical sense.

Utilities, real estate and consumer staples had been going against the grain for much of the day but as of the close only utilities were green.

The USD is up spent the session struggling to reclaim its 50 day moving average.

Curve inversion as the 10 year sees a safety bid.

The president is supposedly set to sign a 1.3T spending package that his base does not like while he praises the merits of his newly signed tariffs on Chinese imports. At the signing, he stated that it was only the first of many such penalties.

Imo, reflexive bounces should be viewed with suspicion while a collective denial of impending political instability persists.

SPX/ES/SPY: 2643.69/2643.75/263.67
After a gap down, the SPX broke the 100 day sma and bounced off the 2660 area to later reject resistance at 2690. The rally from 3 March has now been retraced and 2650 support was broken. It looks like the 150 and 200 day moving averages could be in play.

Market Internals
Advance-Decline Lines: -1867. NYSE Breadth: -9.52:1, NASDAQ Breadth: -4.9:1. NYSE TICK: steep downtrend from 14:00 onward. TRIN: 2.11

NYSE MOC: ended -15M but was well over -1B going into the close - games. NYSE composite volume was above average.

Implied Volatility
VIX had a big day. VXJ8:19.40, VXK8:18.43, VIX:23.34

Debt/Bond/Treasury
ZNM8 up +.52% on a safety bid. The 10 Year yield 2.83%.

S&P Futures Now