Agreed that the NPV is approx $800m at $25/lb cobalt. However, the company still needs to raise $400m for project capex. Assuming $200m equity and $200m debt the EV of Cobalt Blue will be higher than the current market cap of $136m (excl option dilution). Fully diluted there are 130m shares currently in issue. If we’re lucky we’ll raise capex equity at $2 a share (100m), so total of 230m shares in issue to finalize cash for capex.
Most projects trade at a price / npv ratio of 1 when built and operational. Plug in different long term cobalt prices, generate an NPV and divide by 230m shares or less / more depending on raise price assumption.
Based on current cobalt prices $5 a share is possible in 2020/2021 at full production. However we haven’t seen the PFS yet and there is a risk COB raises cash sub $2. We shall see. Good luck
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