Whatever the odds were in favor of a takeover / licensing deal vs capital raising around the time of the consolidation (80/20 maybe), they would have to be considerably less now (50/50 maybe).
If there is to be a deal, the question is "why the delay"?
Leerink has been on the job since August 2016 (or are they still)? Surely if the relationship has been terminated, there would have been an announcement.
My view remains that there are two huge sticking points to any deal:
- the other drug in the NEU cabinet
- the potential for trofinetide to have a positive effect across the whole of the autism spectrum and how that is valued (Rett Syndrome is a very small part of that spectrum)
Both the above should be more easily accommodated in a licensing agreement, but could be almost impossible to gauge in a takeover offer.
The delay has been just a little too long for my liking (as an 8 year investor in NEU) and the sell-off over the past couple of weeks is understandable.
Change in sentiment from "buy" to "hold".
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