G'day Mars,
Really good commentary and I see where you are coming from but I'll put this to you.
If an "investor" buys based purely on todays fundamental metrics alone, should they really not buy a stock if it is represents what I believe are outstanding fundamentals because of what you terms are the "upcoming" cyclical changes? So what I'm getting at is over the long term starting today, even if a downturn approaches in 5, 10, 15 or 20 years time where do you think the initial investment bought today will be and should it matter? My argument is inevitably there will be upturns and downturns, however over a longer period of time for someone who doesn't mind holding these are all mute points because inevitably quality run stocks which I believe HVN do come back to form higher highs and keep growing (usually) so what happens over the short term doesn't matter in the long term.
It kind of reminds me of our housing market. Many experts have been warning for years that a housing crash is coming and we have the highest housing in the world and highest per capita household debt blah blah blah, if you had listened to them and not bought in to property 10, 7, 5, 3 or whatever years ago where would you be today based on the "upcoming" cyclical downturn.
However, if you are saying that the entire industry will not be here in 5, 10, 15 or 20 years and that includes HVN as everyone will be buying everything online then that is a completely different story......is this what you are saying?
Again, I believe based on "todays" fundamentals alone and for reasons I've outlined it represents an outstanding buy whether you are a short term investor or medium/long term investor.
Good discussion and best of luck.
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