IMO, regardless of who is selling and who is buying the end of Feb price spike was driven by an expectation of an end of month 'going forward' ann. Simple as that.
If that is the case then the SP will move downwards toward $3 again until an ann or at least another swell of anticipation that one is pending.
Nothing glorious is going to occur until the genie is out of the box. It really is a matter of are we 'dealing' or 'going it alone' and at this stage I would put that at 50:50. I consider $3 a fair price until that question is answered.
[btw if Lanstead did any end of month selling they did rather well, didn't they?]
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